Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.008001 0.008999 0.010089 0.011373 0.012844 0.014483 0.016452
2025-01-19 0.006223 0.007531 0.009083 0.011073 0.013573 0.016630 0.020684
2025-01-26 0.005359 0.006804 0.008616 0.011078 0.014369 0.018666 0.024779
2025-02-02 0.004936 0.006521 0.008602 0.011570 0.015757 0.021541 0.030296
2025-02-09 0.004424 0.006036 0.008232 0.011496 0.016308 0.023283 0.034417
2025-02-16 0.004068 0.005713 0.008031 0.011603 0.017090 0.025402 0.039349
2025-02-23 0.003697 0.005323 0.007682 0.011434 0.017409 0.026824 0.043343
2025-03-02 0.003468 0.005113 0.007568 0.011596 0.018238 0.029118 0.049076
2025-03-09 0.003212 0.004837 0.007322 0.011514 0.018648 0.030751 0.053877
2025-03-16 0.002902 0.004447 0.006861 0.011029 0.018316 0.031060 0.056287
2025-03-23 0.002716 0.004239 0.006670 0.010971 0.018705 0.032666 0.061364
2025-03-30 0.002662 0.004237 0.006812 0.011492 0.020172 0.036408 0.071224
2025-04-06 0.002434 0.003938 0.006443 0.011097 0.019953 0.037013 0.074913
2025-04-13 0.002246 0.003692 0.006146 0.010808 0.019912 0.037977 0.079590
2025-04-20 0.002124 0.003549 0.006017 0.010812 0.020433 0.040134 0.087293
2025-04-27 0.002083 0.003546 0.006133 0.011291 0.021958 0.044590 0.101195
2025-05-04 0.001968 0.003399 0.005976 0.011219 0.022332 0.046606 0.109564
2025-05-11 0.001886 0.003307 0.005911 0.011323 0.023090 0.049582 0.120957
2025-05-18 0.001778 0.003157 0.005725 0.011159 0.023238 0.051161 0.128957
2025-05-25 0.001717 0.003091 0.005694 0.011316 0.024123 0.054616 0.142851
2025-06-01 0.001633 0.002977 0.005560 0.011237 0.024453 0.056757 0.153446
2025-06-08 0.001514 0.002785 0.005257 0.010765 0.023805 0.056335 0.156325
2025-06-15 0.001446 0.002691 0.005146 0.010708 0.024151 0.058543 0.167803